Brexit, whilst still undecided at the time of writing this, has had a large impact on almost every single industry in some way or another. The housing market is often seen as the safest place to invest, but it is one that can go up and down quite quickly.
Has Brexit affected the property in Stratford? Well… not as much as you might think!
Whilst chatting with a local landlord a few weeks ago, I suggested property values in Stratford-upon-Avon would be between 1.2% and 2.2% different by the end of the year.
Brexit hasn’t had the significant effect on the Stratford-upon-Avon property market as some predicted it would do at the beginning of 2018.
How do we know Brexit hasn’t dramatically affected the local housing market?
To work this is out is a calculation using the number of property transactions (property sold) that have taken place locally since 2008. This is of course taking us back to the most recent property recession – the credit crunch years of 2008 – 2010.
It’s really common during property recessions for the headlines to focus on property values, rather than sales. This is because we’re all very focused on the value of our homes and businesses.
But of course, this doesn’t truly come into play until you sell.
Most people who sell also go on to buy. For most home movers, if your property has gone down in value, the one you buy has also gone down in value – so you are relatively no better or worse off.
If you’re moving upmarket in a downbeat market, the gap between what your home is worth and what you’d like to buy gets lower – so you’re better off!
A better measure of the health of the property market therefore are the transaction numbers (sales) within the market.
So, let’s take a look at the 2018 statistics and compare them with those Credit Crunch years (2008 – 2010) and then the boom years of 2014 – 2017 and see what the data shows.
| The Average Number of Properties Sold Per Month Over the Last 10 Years in Stratford-on-Avon | |||
| 2008 to 2010 | 2014 to 2017 | 2018 | |
| Jan | 88 | 158 | 153 |
| Feb | 89 | 158 | 156 |
| March | 108 | 205 | 170 |
| April | 102 | 169 | 131 |
| May | 121 | 202 | 163 |
| June | 139 | 244 | 238 |
| July | 158 | 219 | 181 |
| Aug | 153 | 240 | 219 |
| Sept | 135 | 223 | 182 |
| Oct | 137 | 242 | 225 |
| Nov | 127 | 234 | 235 |
| Dec | 148 | 223 | 226 |
The average quarterly figures for those chosen date ranges:
Hardly a bad time in recent years, right?
- During the 2008 – 2010 property credit crunch, the average number of properties sold in the Stratford-on-Avon area was 125 per month.
- From 2014 to 2017, the average number of properties sold in the Stratford-on-Avon area was 210 per month.
- In 2018, the number of properties sold in the Stratford-on-Avon area was an impressive average of 190 properties per month.
So, 2018 compared to the boom years of 2014 to 2017 saw a drop of just 9.3%.
2018 was also 51.5% higher than the credit crunch years of 2008 to 2010!
What are the problems in the housing market in Stratford-upon-Avon?
The real issue is that there haven’t been enough new homes being built since the 1980s.
Add to that, the cost of buying a first-time home remaining relatively high compared to wages, and the tougher mortgage rules that were introduced in 2014, and the current mortgage market conditions are tough for many.
Ultimately, it’s these factors that will determine and form the long-term outlook for Stratford-upon-Avon and the wider housing market.
Brexit will always get the blame – it does elsewhere too. Assuming some deal can be arranged with Brexit, in the long-term property values in Stratford-upon-Avon will be constrained by earnings with the long-term house price rises looking to be around no more than 2.5% to 4% a year.
“Should I wait to buy or not?”
As a Stratford-upon-Avon homebuyer, what’s your best next move?
Should you worry about events in Westminster, Brussels, Ireland, China, or the USA?
Well, we think that what you should really do is look out for yourself.
If you want to move into the area get your child in ‘that’ school, or you need to move for your expanding family then really… our advice is get on with it.
There’s always going to be some reason why you can’t move or should wait, right?
Stratford-upon-Avon Landlord?
As mentioned earlier, they aren’t building enough homes to keep up with demand in Stratford, so as that demand outstrips the supply, the house values will continue to grow.
Putting your money in the building society will only earn you about 1% to 2% if you’re lucky and in the short term, there could be some bargains to be had from shortsighted panicking sellers. In the long term the same reasons given to homeowners also apply to you.
Stats
Land Registry for your local authority
The Nov & Dec 2018 figures from the Land Registry have not yet been confirmed – these are calculated figures based on recent activity
